The Bank of Canada (BoC) reduced the overnight rate by 25 basis points this morning, bringing the policy rate down to 2.75%, within the neutral range of 2.25%—2.75%. Tariff tremors have already led to a decline in consumer confidence and spending, a weakening labour market, and a decline in business investment. Compound that with falling population growth, and you see why the Governing Council took the overnight rate down again even though they state that monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war.

Trade wars lead to higher prices and slower growth. The rise in prices causes consumers to tighten their belts, concerned about the impact of tariffs on their income and investments. Today, there is a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum exports to the US. This impacts Canada the most as it supplies roughly 80% of US aluminum demand. The EU introduced retaliatory tariffs on US goods in response. Canada added to its retaliation. Recent data suggest the US economy is slowing.

Monetary policy remains restrictive as the real overnight rate (2.75% minus the headline inflation rate) is 85 bps, up from the historical average of 60 bps. Five-year Government of Canada bond yields increased on the news to 2.65% compared to 4.05% in the US. The Federal Reserve is not expected to cut rates when it meets again this month.

Despite relatively strong GDP growth in Canada in the second half of last year, home sales and hiring began to slow in late January due to tariff threats, and more tariffs are yet to come. On March 20, China is expected to impose 100% retaliatory tariffs on Canadian canola oil, while pork and seafood will face a 25% levy. The Chinese tariffs are a push-back against Canada for imposing a 100% levy on electric cars from China and  25% on steel and aluminum.

On April 2, the US announced it will impose reciprocal tariffs on nations that have levied tariffs on US goods. President Trump has also said he is considering imposing retaliatory tariffs on Canadian dairy and lumber.

“We’re now facing a new crisis. The economic impact could be severe depending on the extent and duration of new US tariffs,” Macklem said in his prepared remarks.

Macklem called the uncertainty of the tariff dispute “pervasive” and said that it was “already causing harm.” Officials said the “continuously changing” US tariff threat was hitting consumers’ spending intentions and limiting businesses’ plans to hire and invest.

At the same time, Macklem said the bank “will proceed carefully with any further changes” to borrowing costs, and officials would “need to assess both the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs and the downward pressures from weaker demand.”

Bottom Line

These are uncertain times. The US is determined to impose worldwide tariffs, disproportionately hitting Canada, Mexico, and China, the US’s top trading partners. This is a misguided neo-Mercantilist policy. Mercantilism assumes that the global economic pie is fixed, so if one country prospers, another must fail. This idea of a zero-sum game was debunked in the 18th century by Adam Smith and others who showed that if countries have a competitive advantage in various products and services, all are better off by producing and trading those products with the rest of the world. It is not a zero-sum game. The economic pie grows with trade. This was the idea behind globalization and the USMCA free trade agreement.

Given Canada’s vulnerability to tariffs, the economy will suffer more than the US, which has a relatively closed economy (where exports are a small proportion of GDP). Prices will rise depending on the duration and size of the coming tariffs, but mitigating the inflation will be the weakness in economic activity. Stagflation, a buzz-word in the 1970s, is back in the lexicon.

We expect the BoC to continue cutting the policy rate in 25-bps increments until it reaches 2.25% this June, triggering a rebound in home sales. Layoffs and spending cuts will dampen sentiment, but lower interest rates will bring buyers off the sidelines.

Trump has imposed tariffs of 25% on goods coming from Mexico and Canada, 10% on Canadian energy, and an additional  10% on goods from China. He justified these actions by claiming they would force Mexico and Canada to address issues related to undocumented migration and drug trafficking. However, while precursor chemicals for fentanyl come from China and undocumented migrants enter through the southern border with Mexico, Canada accounts for only about 1% of both issues.

The Wall Street Journal, typically considered a conservative publication, criticized Trump, labelling this as the “dumbest trade war in history.” The Journal stated, “Mr. Trump sometimes sounds as if the US shouldn’t import anything at all, that America can be a perfectly closed economy making everything at home. This is called autarky, and it isn’t the world we live in or one that we should want to live in, as Mr. Trump may soon find out.”

This misguided tariff policy will cause untold damage to the global economy, including the US. Americans will suffer the impact of higher prices and shortages of key

products imported from Canada and Mexico. The various North American free trade agreements aimed to improve manufacturing efficiencies and meld the three economies to maximize productivity and the free flow of essential inputs into production. Canada is the number one supplier of steel and aluminum and there are no readily available substitutes for these crucial inputs. A plethora of products and construction activity use steel and aluminum. Aluminum is produced in Quebec where hydroelectricity is plentiful and cheap. US farmers depend on Canadian potash and auto parts, and Canada is the number one exporter of oil and gas to the US.

Consider the US auto industry, which operates as a North American entity due to the highly integrated supply chains across the three countries. In 2024, Canada supplied nearly 13% of US auto parts imports, while Mexico accounted for almost 42%. Industry experts note that a vehicle produced on the continent typically crosses borders multiple times as companies source components and add value most cost-effectively.

This integration benefits everyone involved. According to the Office of the US Trade Representative, the industry contributed more than $809 billion to the US economy in 2023, representing about 11.2% of total US manufacturing output and supporting 9.7 million direct and indirect US jobs. In 2022, the US exported $75.4 billion in vehicles and parts to Canada and Mexico. According to the American Automotive Policy Council, this figure rose 14% in 2023, reaching $86.2 billion.

Without this trade, American car makers would struggle to compete. Regional integration has become an industry-wide manufacturing strategy in Japan, Korea, and Europe. It leverages high-skilled and low-cost labour markets to source components, software, and assembly.

As a result, US industrial capacity in automobiles has grown alongside an increase in imported motor vehicles, engines, and parts. From 1995 to 2019, imports of these items rose by 169%, while US industrial capacity in the same categories increased by 71%. Thousands of well-paying auto jobs in states like Texas, Ohio, Illinois, and Michigan owe their competitiveness to this ecosystem, which relies heavily on suppliers in Mexico and Canada.

Tariffs will also cause mayhem in the cross-border trade of farm goods. In fiscal 2024, Mexican food exports comprised about 23% of US agricultural imports, while Canada supplied some 20%. Many top US growers have moved to Mexico because limits on legal immigration have made it hard to find workers in the US. Mexico now supplies 90% of avocados sold in the US.

Yesterday, the President’s tariff announcement led to an immediate sell-off in stock markets worldwide. Bonds, seen as a safer haven, rallied sharply, taking longer-term interest rates down sharply in anticipation of a meaningful slowdown in economic activity. The Canadian dollar sold off sharply, though it clawed back some of its losses overnight. WTI oil prices dropped 2% yesterday and continued to decline today.

Bottom Line
This is a lose-lose situation and President Trump underestimates the negative fallout of his actions at home and abroad. Retaliation will be swift. Americans will balk at the disruption of supply chains (think waiting for months for a new car) and the increase in the price of many products.

Legendary investor, Warren Buffet, called the tariffs an “act of war.”

Before the tariffs were imposed, we expected roughly 2% growth this year. Assuming the tariffs remain in place for a year, the Canadian economy will plunge into recession. We will likely see a few quarters of negative growth before growth gradually resumes.

Despite the inflation risk, the Bank of Canada will respond aggressively to minimize the meltdown in labour markets and the economy in general. When the Governing Council meets again on March 12, we expect another 25 bps cut in the overnight policy rate, bringing it down to 2.75%. Over the next year, we expect the Bank to continue to ease credit conditions, and a 2.0% overnight rate is likely.

The Canadian 5-year yield, a bellwether for setting fixed mortgage rates, has fallen to 2.51%, its lowest level in nearly three years. Lower interest rates are favorable for housing markets, although the inevitable rise in unemployment and drop in spending will mitigate this effect.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

As of March 1, 2025, mortgage rates in Canada have experienced notable shifts, influenced by recent economic developments and monetary policy adjustments.

Bank of Canada Rate Cuts

Between June 2024 and January 2025, the Bank of Canada implemented six consecutive rate cuts, totaling a reduction of 200 basis points. The most recent cut on January 29, 2025, lowered the benchmark interest rate by 0.25%, bringing it down to 3%. This series of cuts reflects the Bank’s response to declining inflation, which stood at 1.8% in December 2024, and aims to stimulate economic growth.

Impact on Variable-Rate Mortgages

These rate cuts have directly affected variable-rate mortgages and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), as their interest rates are tied to lenders’ prime rates. Following the January rate cut, the prime rate at most lenders decreased to 5.2%. For borrowers, this translates to reduced borrowing costs and lower payments on some variable and adjustable loans.

Fixed Mortgage Rates

Fixed mortgage rates are primarily influenced by government bond yields rather than the Bank of Canada’s benchmark rate. As of March 1, 2025, three-year fixed mortgage rates are available from 4.4% at some brokerages, while five-year fixed rates are showing from 4.19%. These rates have inched down following a decline in bond yields, providing borrowers with more favorable terms.

Rates from Major Banks

Canada’s major banks offer competitive mortgage rates. For example, the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) provides various fixed and variable rate options, with special offers for new mortgages and those switching to RBC. Similarly, TD Canada Trust offers a range of fixed and variable mortgage rates, with a 120-day rate hold for pre-approved mortgages, allowing borrowers to secure current rates even if interest rates rise during that period.

Considerations for Borrowers

When evaluating mortgage options, borrowers should consider:

• Amortization Period: Insurable mortgages in Canada have a maximum amortization period of 25 years.  However, with a down payment of at least 20%, borrowers can access mortgages with longer amortization periods, such as 30 years. While this may result in lower monthly payments, it could come with a slightly higher interest rate and more interest paid over the life of the loan.

• Pre-Approval: Obtaining a mortgage pre-approval can lock in current rates for a specified period (e.g., 90 to 120 days), providing protection against potential rate increases while shopping for a home.

• Fixed vs. Variable Rates: Fixed rates offer stability with consistent payments over the term, while variable rates may fluctuate with market conditions, potentially leading to lower costs if rates decrease further.

In summary, the recent monetary policy easing by the Bank of Canada has led to more favorable borrowing conditions for both variable and fixed-rate mortgages. The only way to know the best available options is to connect with your mortgage broker and get organized a few months before you need your financing.  In the world of home finance it truly pays to be organized and proactive.